Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.386915 2.531863 2.689792 2.876409 3.093334 3.340767 3.649331
2025-04-20 2.169487 2.350584 2.557733 2.816995 3.140354 3.542091 4.100953
2025-04-27 2.148980 2.368579 2.630083 2.974242 3.432657 4.053794 5.032292
2025-05-04 2.033092 2.262735 2.542641 2.922327 3.449581 4.207352 5.518491
2025-05-11 1.982505 2.227762 2.533761 2.962028 3.584049 4.540325 6.403145
2025-05-18 1.881974 2.124067 2.429377 2.863005 3.506670 4.530712 6.661092
2025-05-25 1.835152 2.084435 2.403793 2.867423 3.578931 4.774473 7.561944
2025-06-01 1.780173 2.031349 2.356856 2.837203 3.593434 4.921081 8.346167
2025-06-08 1.735612 1.989048 2.321053 2.818685 3.621902 5.096321 9.358386
2025-06-15 1.708918 1.968905 2.314104 2.841822 3.721659 5.438031 11.366593
2025-06-22 1.647717 1.900036 2.235788 2.750740 3.613977 5.315846 11.399052
2025-06-29 1.612873 1.865434 2.204083 2.729430 3.627226 5.466205 12.984099
2025-07-06 1.574460 1.825806 2.165103 2.696832 3.621560 5.584912 14.856141
2025-07-13 1.557664 1.814918 2.166455 2.727753 3.736536 6.035688 21.661413
2025-07-20 1.556455 1.824956 2.197907 2.808796 3.959094 6.883209 70.442756
2025-07-27 1.532307 1.802131 2.179923 2.806653 4.015392 7.280395 NaN
2025-08-03 1.511609 1.783289 2.166780 2.811341 4.086248 7.771961 NaN
2025-08-10 1.473287 1.738487 2.113065 2.743280 3.992263 7.622850 NaN
2025-08-17 1.451615 1.716677 2.093235 2.732795 4.024137 7.983429 NaN
2025-08-24 1.429348 1.693387 2.070285 2.715457 4.038740 8.291585 NaN
2025-08-31 1.406645 1.668859 2.044569 2.691738 4.036054 8.531119 NaN
2025-09-07 1.397055 1.662764 2.046729 2.717562 4.152540 9.443935 NaN
2025-09-14 1.361433 1.618379 1.988463 2.631497 3.991302 8.811917 NaN